Export Foreign Trade Situation in 2019

- Jun 21, 2019-

From the perspective of exports, first of all, the weakening of global economic growth has led to continued pressure on Chinese exports. In December, JP Morgan Chase's global comprehensive PMI index was 52.7%, down 0.5 percentage points from November; among them, the US Markit manufacturing PMI index and the EU manufacturing PMI index were 53.8% and 51.4%, respectively, down 0.5 and November respectively. 0.4 percentage points; the overall downward trend of the global manufacturing boom cycle has caused external demand to continue to narrow.

Second, the “smashing out” effect caused by Sino-US trade frictions began to disappear. According to the list of Sino-US trade friction plus tariffs, before each round of tariffs, the list involves more obvious “selling exports”. However, as China and the United States began to release the signal of trade friction easing, the phenomenon of “grabbing exports” was significantly weakened. The data shows that China's exports to the United States have fallen the most in all developed countries, reaching 13 percentage points. From a product perspective, mobile phones, clothing, agricultural products, textiles, footwear, and integrated circuits are the main drag on the monthly export value.

Finally, it is related to the high base effect of 2017. In December 2017, the absolute volume and growth rate of China's import and export were respectively the same period in the past five years, which was affected by the rise of the base, which put a lot of pressure on the growth rate of imports and exports in December 2018.